I believe the last time our policy makers were so giddy with anticipatory feelings of schadenfreude, Saddam invaded Iran after the fall of the Shah. There are some people who confuse the oldest ways of war with something wild and new and they coined a term for it; 4th Generation War. The people who originated the term were familiar with the broad sweep of history and war and there is no doubt that they captured one of the finest ways to make war and codified it, gave it a new name and publicized it, but there was nothing new about the idea of conning other peoples into fighting your battles for you on somebody else's real-estate. That's been going on since Biblical Times.
As ISIS destroys the fragile comity of modern 'democratic' Iraq, it's these people who notice that Iran is the sponsor of the terror that is crawling across the Iraqi countryside and how they must be laughing in Qum and Tehran as the dark force eats into all that remains of the only bulwark state left to the Arab world. When Iraq falls, there is nothing that can oppose the Quds and the Supreme Council. It's almost like being able to watch Richelieu and Metternich at work.
It's sad to think that the POLMIL wonks at State and CIA convinced their bosses to set up training camps in Syria and northern Iraq to teach muslim fighters all that we know about overthrowing a State without being forced to send our own armies. Good job guys.
The one sure and certain thing we know is that all of Iraq is as fragile as an egg. Anybody who strikes hard enough fast enough will shatter the country. We did it in Desert Storm and then again in Iraqi Freedom. The war was won within the first 96 hours in both cases. The fundamental secret that everybody hides is that the entire muslim world is just as fragile and a sharp blow will destroy any of the Arab or other muslim states within the space of a few hours.
The guys at State must be quivering jelly at this point as they contemplate what happens when the forces that motivate ISIS breach the Saudi frontiers because the House of Saud won't hesitate to stay on top of the heap even if it means they must massacre 50% of the population---kind of like the Assad's in Syria. In the meantime, the oil will stop flowing from both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
In the meantime, the West rushes to scrap its nuclear power plants. Ever,
2 comments:
The fundamental secret that everybody hides is that the entire muslim world is just as fragile and a sharp blow will destroy any of the Arab or other muslim states within the space of a few hours.
So... why haven't we hit Iran yet? Is it coz the Persians aren't technically Arab?
No. I hate to say it but the underlying reason has to do with the realities of POLMIL as I know it. We could break Iran in about 96 hours but it would leave a vacuum and at this point, the only thing that would/could fill the vacuum is ineffably worse. That's what the Saudis count on.We'll prop up the House of Saud because every single alternative that looks viable is even worse. It's like shooting Bush and getting Cheney or Dan Quayle or now, getting Biden. Even if you run the table, you lose if you inadvertently sink the 8 ball.
Post a Comment