For decades the ruling belief among some observers was that the Iranians could close up the Strait of Hormuz fairly easily any time they wanted to and it would take concerted military action to reopen the waterway. Oddly enough that hasn't happened this time as it looks like the whole world and heaven too is raining fire on Iran. It makes me wonder what happened so early in the conflict that ruled out this simple and obvious strategic weapon and left it to mere insurance companies to shut down the flow of oil and natural gas to Europe and China.
We used to joke that any ship could be a minesweeper, once. The corollary was that just about any ship could be a mine layer and it doesn't really take all that much in terms of modifications to roll them right off the stern or even pitch them over the side. As a semi-pro mine layer myself I recall that when we were putting out the mine shape we used every day for sonar conditions checks before proceeding into the Mine Danger Area, we made two passes. The first pass was to accurately assess the depth of water and adjust the mine tether so that our shape would float nicely about 20 feet below the surface and the second pass was to drop that whole shebang over the side and then come back around and have a look at it with sonar. On a bad day the great mine shape would be right there floating on the surface floating next to the bright red cherry float that was to mark the spot because somebody screwed something up.
On the other hand the hydro graphic data on the Strait of Hormuz is pretty much nailed down at this point. If the surveys of HMS Beagle in 1789 have not been updated by anyone else I'm pretty sure the Iranians had their own surveyors out getting really accurate charts of the area made for their own purposes. It really isn't all that difficult to to do a bottom survey and gather the data needed to accurately fix the locations for one or two thousand anchored sea mines and it is dead easy to just toss over the mines that lay on the bottom and wait for the right 'influence' to detonate under passing ships. Rocket Rising Mines sounded really delightful when I used to read about their more salient properties.
The best part of mining a Strait that you squat on the rim of, is that you can cover the entire mine field with artillery and use it to take pot shots at any mine clearing activity that doesn't meet with your full approval. It's a sort of Wonsan, Korea on steroids. Dealing with mines, anti-MCM mines and artillery and the usual hazards of navigation (would you believe ignorant merchant ships had to be dodged even while conducting MCM in an active mine field) is straight forward but time consuming.
So what happened to the mines? What happened to the coastal artillery batteries? What happened to the swarms of missile armed speed boats? I mean none of these and not all of these together even slowed down tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq Tanker War and during Praying Mantis it continued on, undaunted so what happened to make the pussies in Lloyd's scrap the insurance scam this time?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Saudis know how to read the future pretty well and saw this coming over 40 years ago and decided to not only build a brand new oil port in Yanbu on the Red Sea, they built pipelines to carry their oil there whenever needed. I don't know if they told the Kuwaitis to pound sand and refused their oil transit across Saudi Arabia or not but it doesn't look like Kuwait can do anything now but shut down. The Qataris managed to piss off just about all the Gulf arab rulers so nobody even thought about letting them build a pipeline out to the Red Sea.
On the gripping hand, nothing easier to blow a hole in then 150 miles of oil pipeline running on the desert's surface smack dab in the middle of a remarkable war zone.
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| First USN led tanker convoy and M/V Bridgeton hit a mine and carried on |






