TIME TO CONSIDER OUR OWN EAST OF SUEZ MOMENT

 In January of 1968 the greatly faded British Empire withdrew from its installations east of Suez. It basically consigned the whole half of the world over there to its own devices. I'm not one to prognosticate but I suspect that now would be an excellent time for the United States to withdraw from east of Suez. It is by and large a really crappy place that is best left to its own devices and none of it has really mattered very much to us since OPEC reared its nasty head and embargoed the United States over Israel or some other stupid matter that doesn't affect 99.9% of Americans.

The British skedaddled just as things started to heat up in their former Empire and their Mandates and we at least can pull out unburdened by any guilt over starting something we cannot finish. That whole collapse and then rebirth of the Indian subcontinent had nothing to do with us outside the very fine work and science of Doctor Norman Borlaug. He merely did his best to provide food for a world undergoing a population explosion and what happened in Africa is probably best explained by Professor Ali A. Mazrui . I've referenced both before and they play a large part in understanding the world that lies beyond Suez which is kind of a mystery to, again, 99% of Americans. Remember, we're talking about people incensed to the point of suicide about nonsense such as "From the River to the Sea" and the stupid morons don't know the name of the river or the name of the Sea and couldn't find either on a map of the world.

Reading that Americans have now been killed by drones and missiles targeted on them directly is really irritating because it has not been met with the proper and only response and it needs to be or it really is time to leave East of Suez to those east of the canal and walk/sail away.

The Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, North Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean and everything up to the Strait of Malacca can be factored out by its net contributions to the United States and sadly it amounts to roughly zero. There is little net value in trade with China through the the Indian Ocean and we get only a pittance of our energy needs from that region and it can all come overland in the form of pipelines to Yanbu or even through Israel. If the Saudi King doesn't want to contest with Yemen anymore over the freedoms of navigation that the world presumes its owed, so be it. 

If the Gulf Emirates want to pretend that we got their back despite laying a world of hurt and disdain on US, we don't really care about them anymore than we care about Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran and we really truly do not care about them. Not one or all of them is in any way shape or form any kind of Vital Interest to the United States or its people. Our trade with them is negligible and certainly not worth another 2 trillion dollars and 6000 lives. On the other hand, if they feel it is that important, let them fight for it.

I cannot off the top of my head think of any meaningful trade we have with India or Africa that requires passage through the contested waters east of Suez. Send them around the Cape if they're that good since the incremental cost of a couple of extra days steaming and crews wages adds maybe 1 penny/1000 tons.  I think we can suck that up without noticing and far more easily than what Bidenomics and the neocons have done to our economy.

In Political/Military terms we don't actually much care what the fallout from any military affairs are likely to be over there. Consider, the Suez Canal was closed from 1967 until the U.S. led clearance operations in 1975. We really don't need the Suez Canal anymore. If India and Pakistan want to wage the first nuclear war since 1945 there isn't all that much we could contribute so there's not much point in being there for it and ditto any Pakistan-Iran nuclear war. Let them sort it out and we'll regret that they both can't lose. There is no love in America for any of them and it is much to obvious that this isn't due to any racism which only exists in major universities and DIE heads. Ukraine and Russia prove every single day that the world cared more about Bosnians then they do about Ukrainians and didn't care very much at all for Bosnians.

The smoking radio-active remains of any of the countries that try to destroy Israel are best left to the tender mercies of the Israelis. If there is to be an Armageddon they can start and finish it without us.

I can see why the British pulled back east of Suez. Like us they were terminally broke and they had nowhere near the military or navy to remain significant anywhere beyond home-waters. We've reached that point and there is no use kicking about it. 25 years of utterly wasteful and ruinous military and naval policy has left both the Army and Navy in ruins. The War in Ukraine has burned through our ammo stocks and right now I'm reading that the principal manufacturer of American weapons is laying workers off.

It is well known that one best prepares for war in peacetime. We did that richly ever since the end of Vietnam but pissed it all away over the last 30 years. We went from roughly a 600 combatant ship navy down to roughly:

one can gain an appreciation for the level of desperation here in that they list USS Constitution as a warship on active service which isn't bad for a sail powered all gun ship built in 1797. Even so it probably has more actual value than all of the LCS vessels combined and has repeatedly engaged in naval combat.

One may also safely set aside the various amphibious ship types shown above since they are about as relevant to modern warfare as the USS Constitution. If any of these were to show up in contested waters they would last roughly as long as it takes to sink after enormous holes are blown in the hull and out of control fires rage through the ship. You know what the next to last survivor says to the other one as they slip under the surface? "At least the fires are out." 

The Sea Control ships come to a total of about 98 and at any given time about a third are not available at all which leaves around 60 to fight the next major maritime war with the help of a couple dozen submarines.

I think it would be interesting to see what would happen. Maritime commerce would stop dead in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, North Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and western Indian Ocean. It would see a return of great interest in the Northern Passage, nuclear powered ice breakers and ships built to carry 20,000 TEU through the Roaring 40s.

On the gripping hand, I suspect most shipping will head West out of Europe and the Med and East out India and the Madagascar vanilla beans will have to make their own way to market. It's going to be the death of transfer ports like Khor Fakkan and Fujairah.