I enjoy reading Zero Hedge but they fall for the same fallacy we all fail to take account of despite knowing better. In this case, the analysts presume knowledge not in evidence and they make the critical error of presuming all actors are rational beings. That never really happens.
He wrote that Iran entered the blockade with about 15 million barrels in Kharg storage, roughly 51% full. At a flat production fill rate of 1.9 million barrels per day, that storage would max out in about 8 days. Even with aggressive upstream throttling, he said, the ceiling would still be hit in about 20 days. After that, wells may have to be shut in, risking permanent reservoir damage.
That’s the point. As time passes, Tehran has to think not just about lost revenue, but about storage, field management, and what happens if production has to be curtailed under pressure.
The analyst simply presumes that those who are actually running the war against Trump know that their intransigence can destroy the means of producing the country's wealth or that they even care about it. I try not to make that kind of assumption and there is the other thing that comes from not being a rational actor. It's the Louis XIV disease we reference from time to time here. Après moi le deluge.
The God botherers that run Iran probably don't a damn about the oil or what comes after them. They mean to win and if they win standing on a pile of corpses a mile high, they're good with that.
5 comments:
Pity only abject surrender is acceptable to Trump and Israel.
Assassinating every one that shows up for diplomatic engagement doesn't encourage rational responses from the next in line.
But then again Israel wants Iran destroyed by their rent a military America and apparently America wants middle east oil competition for "plenty of oil" America just like destroying nord stream to force the EU to buy "freedom gas" from America.
The Islamic terrorist regime that has held Persia hostage for 50 years is evil incarnate. They cannot be reasoned with and they cannot be bought off. They intend to wipe Israel off the map by any means available. If they had a nuke, they would have used it already. The only solution is to end them with prejudice and pray the good people of Persia can hold onto a freer country.
I think you're wrong. History shows that only when you eliminate the obstacles to peace do you get peace. The mullahs are an ongoing and forever obstacle to peace and they all have to be eliminated. When the ocracy exterminates all of its opponents it rules peacefully. That is what the mullahs and Saddam and the communists did for 60 years. It is what the Israelis have embarked upon, finally in their quest to exterminate the terrorists that own and operate the middle east and the people who get rich supporting them.
You appear to be arguing that only a return to the status quo is possible because you believe only the elite who ruled are allowed to live and prosper from negotiations. You'll notice we didn't negotiate with Nazi Germany or Japan and we simply carried on with our program until they finally wised up. That is historically how WARS end. Squabbles can last forever, simply look at all the inhouse squabbles between ruling dynasties in Europe over a thousand and more years.
Agreed, but this time it is up to them. We're not going to do it for them.
Go visit Aipac website and learn why 65% of the senate and congress gets "reelection money and pac support " from them.
Been over 19 years (look it up) that Iran's been 2 weeks until they get a nuke.
Only becomes important when Israel needs their rent a military to pound them again.
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