I enjoy reading Zero Hedge but they fall for the same fallacy we all fail to take account of despite knowing better. In this case, the analysts presume knowledge not in evidence and they make the critical error of presuming all actors are rational beings. That never really happens.
He wrote that Iran entered the blockade with about 15 million barrels in Kharg storage, roughly 51% full. At a flat production fill rate of 1.9 million barrels per day, that storage would max out in about 8 days. Even with aggressive upstream throttling, he said, the ceiling would still be hit in about 20 days. After that, wells may have to be shut in, risking permanent reservoir damage.
That’s the point. As time passes, Tehran has to think not just about lost revenue, but about storage, field management, and what happens if production has to be curtailed under pressure.
The analyst simply presumes that those who are actually running the war against Trump know that their intransigence can destroy the means of producing the country's wealth or that they even care about it. I try not to make that kind of assumption and there is the other thing that comes from not being a rational actor. It's the Louis XIV disease we reference from time to time here. Après moi le deluge.
The God botherers that run Iran probably don't a damn about the oil or what comes after them. They mean to win and if they win standing on a pile of corpses a mile high, they're good with that.
1 comment:
Pity only abject surrender is acceptable to Trump and Israel.
Assassinating every one that shows up for diplomatic engagement doesn't encourage rational responses from the next in line.
But then again Israel wants Iran destroyed by their rent a military America and apparently America wants middle east oil competition for "plenty of oil" America just like destroying nord stream to force the EU to buy "freedom gas" from America.
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