NOW IMAGINE THIS IS US AND CHINA

As you think about this:

In this thread I'll respond to some of what I've seen out there. Let's start with Niall:

1) On the general background, yes, you have been more right than wrong on a lot of the details of the conflict. Which is why I'm surprised to hear you call the administration's posture… https://t.co/w7OQemI3R7

— JD Vance (@JDVance) February 21, 2025

What the thread is demonstrating to all of us who continue to read about how the United States must prepare for war with China, is just how ridiculous that notion really is today. As with the Ukrainian position in their war with Russia, there are not now and never will be any situation in which Ukraine defeats Russia. It is impossible, not just inconceivable and yet there are zillions of people roaming the halls searching for some way to have Ukraine come out victorious in the peace talks.

History is replete with examples of countries getting screwed at the peace talks after the war or making out like bandits at the peace talks after the war. One can look at Germany and World War I for an example of the first case and at France after Napoleon was defeated the first time as an example of the second kind. Unfortunately for France, the Allies had to defeat Napoleon again and the Second Treaty of Paris in 1815 was nowhere near as generous as the first Treaty of Paris in 1814.

The upshot though was that World War I ended not in the military defeat of Germany on the battlefield but from crushing the people with starvation and this led to the next war. In Europe in 1815 the statesman and the crowned heads were smart enough to see that what had recently transpired in France was going to happen to all of them and they took some steps to mitigate it to the best extent they could via the Congress of Vienna. It was a critical time for the West and we live with the fallout to this day. After defeating Germany a second time the terms were much much worse and we created NATO not so much to keep the Russians out as to keep the damned Germans down. Look at the initial agreement for the NATO Treaty and what it had to say about Germany.

The current talks have merit, to the extent that they mean anything to the rest of Europe, only if they address what is at the very core of the war in Ukraine. Irredentism underlies European history as it does nowhere else on earth. Europe is a tapestry of nation/states that range from the tiny ethnic states to awful conglomerations like the former Yugoslavia and we all saw how that played out. It is important to note that European learned nothing from that and then decided ethnic conflict among just European tribes wasn't enough so they brought in zillions of muslims and migrants from every tiny hate-filled torn-to-pieces state and country on earth. Good going guys, we know how this plays out.

To return to the topic though, if we do embroil ourselves in another war featuring China, just how do the various players so keen to foment one, plan to get out of it since we no longer have the option of sending an expeditionary force to Peking and forcing the Empress to run away and then give us what we want?

Now if you want scary, consider that men just like Soros are working with everything they have at their command to turn China against Russia because they'll make more money off that war than any war in history. On the gripping hand, some people think that the renewed Chinese fascination with long range nuclear tipped rockets owes some of its basis to their fears of the United States, me, I think they know that if they invade Siberia they're going to enjoy a brief rain of fire and will try to prevent that by promising MAD and when you think about it in that light, isn't mutual assured destruction just about the stupidest defense policy you could ever dream up in your worst fantasies?

Ever wonder what the great families dream of? All of them throughout history have devoted themselves not to the world as it is but to the idea of the world that they will leave for their grandchildren and great grandchildren to rule after them. They think in terms of generations to come whereas politicians only believe in the now. I'm not sure which is worse.