Friday, November 18, 2022


 If you take even a quick look at the map below you might see the problem with the Ukrainian missile errantly  straying into Poland when it was allegedly fired at incoming Russian cruise missiles.

How did a anti-aircraft missile find itself in Poland since Poland is not really in the flight path for any Russian cruise missiles?

Russia is using its latest and best cruise missiles against targets in Ukraine and they are doing it repeatedly and the Ukrainian air defenses are allegedly improving against these attacks. The way you improve is by studying most carefully the previous attacks and working out how to defend against them with missiles and electronic counter-measures. You know who would be real interested in just how both sides are working out the teething problems of new missiles and new air defense techniques? That's right, NATO.

There is almost certainly an AWACs or later generation ECM aircraft keeping a focused eye on the airspace in and around and above Ukraine and every single thing that moves through it is tracked and monitored in real time. NATO would know instantly if the missile that killed two Poles in Poland was launched by Ukraine or Russia. That whole bit of fake outrage at Russia was just gas on the fire hoping that somebody would propose shooting at the Russians ourselves rather than leaving all that to the Ukrainians, mercenaries and hundreds of NATO 'advisors' that are 'assisting Ukraine's armed forces with exotic weapons they never saw before in their lives. You know, all those German tanks, HIMARS and Javelin missiles and all that artillery NATO sent them.

I believe that there are thousands of people in DC and other NATO capitals thirsting for a chance at a nice little war with Russia since they perceive depth as weakness. They're stupid but they are convinced that with the right trigger they can pull off another Tonkin Gulf incident and drag us kicking and screaming into a war with Russia.


Marco the Lab said...

What did the Ukies have to lose launching missiles into Poland? Not much, maybe a little credibility? At some point it might just help them. The British news kept reporting a "Russian made missile" in hopes of hurting Russian by deceiving the public.

boron said...

Just my 1¢:
I don't think it's "...hundreds of NATO 'advisors'..." anymore; multiply the figure by 10, at least.
I'm happy that someone else foresees another "another Tonkin Gulf incident" in the near future. They've been talking with Scandinavia and the Baltics about the Gulf of Finland, they've been talking with the SW crescent of the Black Sea, they've even been talking with the Norks about Vladivostok and the Sea of Japan - all openly.
And you're right, it's not just DC: it's Whitehall, Brussels, Berlin, and, more particularly, Cologny that would like a bite of the Russia apple.

Don McCollor said...

Missiles do go awry. One of the early NASA unsuccessful launches was what was nicknamed "The ICBM" (Into Cuba By Mistake).

Matthew W said...

Not unpossible that the rockets came from/thru Belarus

Anonymous said...

Biden at the Bali conference said the flight path wasn't from Russia.

Missile launches are detected and announced by NORAD right now -- not an hour or day later. There is no delay. There is no doubt where each missile was launched and where the flight path was taking it.

Guys who are in the know and really care, noted that the missile fabrication indicated a missile purchased by the Ukraine years ago. And yes, there are guys who can look at rivet patterns or other indications and tell you where a missile was made and who the original buyer was. I just drink coffee and enjoy life.

HMS Defiant said...

Indeed they do. I was FCO on a destroyer and our air defense missiles (as a whole class of all of the same type), failed to even launch and leave the rail when fired. The problem with the missile gone awry theory is that everyone immediately was directed to blame Russia and nobody stood up against it for the longest time.

HMS Defiant said...

One of the things I learned with JTF A at Cairo West was the importance of the FSCL. Launching unguided objects into airspace stuffed with aircraft is all to likely to involve death and destruction in the air and is usually avoided when firing thru allied air space.....or at least by us.

HMS Defiant said...

As someone repeatedly shells the largest nuclear power plant in Europe I'm surprised their is no counterbattery radar set up nearby or air monitoring to track the flight of the artillery rounds from point of origin to point of impact.

Anonymous said...

The blank SSR with no name