Saturday, May 2, 2026

THE REALITY POKE

 It would be better if nobody asked why I woke up when listening to this but still I think it bears a listen. Start at minute 55 when Jared Dillian speaks the truth about something obvious and yet something that most people simply forget.

 

Here's the rough transcript for what I wanted you to hear. 

"Corn, rice, beans are basically in the same place or lower than they were 15 years ago and we've had 50% inflation since then so they're really cheaper in real terms. So, that's the point I wanted to make......

In 2011 gas prices were $4.00 per gallon and now they're $4.00 per gallon so we've had 50% inflation so it's still cheaper in real terms." 

Some conniving traders are out there trying to panic people with the end of the world because fertilizer or some bullshit, need to be ignored for what they are, the AlGore of mistruth, lies and deceit. Yes, it is not going to be pretty in the 3rd world but it never is and most important, there is nothing you can do about it so you are well advised not to panic or obsess over it.

6 comments:

Michael said...

We will see about October 2026

As that old saying goes:

The white lie
The Damn Lie
and Statistics.

HMS Defiant said...

I am the happy observer here. It takes real focus and dedication to get to the real truth in this kind of affair. 90% of our corn is feed for animals and yet the price of beef is so ridiculous today because the farmers have chopped back so severely on beef so it would follow that there would be oceans of surplus corn but I just don't know. Hearing that the prices are exactly where they were in 2011 for these staples despite 50% inflation is eye-opening.
I will not despair of American farmers or our new States in Alberta and South America. They farm pretty good there too. Those TCNs are in trouble but then, they always have been.

Dan said...

Don't listen to the talking heads. Just take a look at your own personal financial situation and ask yourself..."am I better off or worse off than I was 5...10...15 years ago". Because THAT is what actually matters.

Michael said...

VERY TRUE Dan.

Keep your receipts of your weekly (biweekly) grocery shopping.

Put them in envelopes for each month so you don't lose them.

Then look at 3 months ago vs today.

As we are creatures of habit we tend to over a month or so buy the same stuff often enough to get Apples to Apples economic comparisons.

THAT tells you REAL INFLATION.

What the PAPER price of beans (WHAT KIND sir? Soy, I expect) means LITTLE to the street price of that item.

So, HMS do you stand with a deep larder (6 moths plus of shelf stable staples) of food or stand with barely a week to week supply confident that the US dollar and inflation will not be an issue in 3 months to your monthly food budget?

How strong is your conviction that Trumps throwing of the imperial dice will be "fully successful" and how in real life terms will you define that?

Tom said...

I have a friend who is a small time rancher on his mother’s 65 acer place. He ha eleven cows. He pointed out it takes two years to grow a cow vs three months to grow a chicken. Part of what you are for is the two years of feed, land cost , taxes and risk. He lost two caves this year which is unusual for him. With chickens it is a few square feet for three to five months. It made me think beef is cheap. Tom

HMS Defiant said...

Michael, I am a flighty creature of the moment and for almost a decade my purchases were pretty simple. If you're familiar with the way French city folk buy their food you might know the way I used to. I lived at the end of a nice alley behind Albatross Street in Mission Hills neighborhood in San Diego and there was an Albertson's and a Safeway at the end of it. I would walk down to either and buy what looked good for dinner and walk home unless I walked to one of the 70 restaurants in Hillcrest that I thought might fill me up. I usually had nothing home at all.
Nowadays I have a deep larder and worry that the 3rd world coming to America means I'll lose power long enough that my freezers will thaw and have a decent pantry but nothing like what you mention.
When I visit the local Asia market in China Town I'm routinely blown away by them selling any of 20 varieties of 50 pound sacks of rice but I never buy.

What Trump is doing rings true to me as a settling an issue that needs settling unlike some of the more adventurous presidents before him or the idiots. Iran is an enemy of all civilization and they have proudly declared themselves so a million times in the last 40 years and everything they do shows how sincere they are. I'd rather competent leaders like Hegseth and Cain dealt with it now rather than wait until feckless brain dead opportunists and morons like Biden, Hillary, Kamala, and Lloyd Austin 'dealt' with it. Yeah, one day the world will wake up to find one of it's capitals is a radioactive ruin but I'd like to put that off as long as possible.
It is insanely easy to build a bomb. Anybody can do it IF THEY HAVE FISSIONABLE materials. Thus the only remaining deterrent is keeping the fissionables away from people bent on taking everyone on a guided tour of Hell.