Thank you Ukraine for totally normalizing the production and distribution of advanced missiles worldwide that can be used to smash infrastructure and cities everywhere and not be viewed by anyone as an act of war. You have enabled any country to now lash out at any other country with everyone else's long range missiles and drones and attack any and all targets secure in the knowledge that the world only tolerates proportional responses. In the old days of course, an attack on a superpower invited retaliation along the lines of Dresden or Tokyo or even something more immature like Nagasaki.
To any veteran of the old Cold War it is obvious that President Putin and Russia are playing a game with Ukraine that is simply invisible to 99%. I have long thought the game was simply to blood the army, rebuild the actual military ethos and officer corps and to develop advanced weapons and tactics and techniques and to wage a kind of war unlike anything in the past. I still think that is what is happening even as they exterminate all of that in Ukraine and cripple NATO's war machine. But there is something changing now that makes me think that the old ways will come back to the fore.
If Russia wanted a dead and supine Ukraine they would drop every single highway bridge overnight and then destroy every power plant in the next week or two as Europe prepares for winter. They could have done this at any time but up until now I think that they were content to let the Ukrainians continue to push their men into the killing fields and exterminate them there. That changed recently when the sanctions became something right out of Brest-Litovsk or Versailles.
Once that Rubicon is crossed there is little point in continuing to fight with the gloves on and all the reason in the world to simply reach out and flatten your enemy or enemies. The sanctions that the West is insisting on imposing on Russia are the kind and type that a winner imposes by fiat on the loser and unlike Germany in 1918, there isn't a Russian alive who thinks they are losing in Ukraine. The Russians were very careful to distinguish what they were about by calling it a Special Military Operation. It's goals were to achieve a reincorporation of the ethnic Russian provinces back into Russia. That changed in March of 2024 when they announced that they were now entering a State of War because of the West's collective insistence in involving itself in and prolonging the agony of the SMO.
It is a cruel fact of history that nobody can sanction an undefeated opponent and most especially not without first declaring and waging war. The last time we tried anything like this Japan retaliated by launching all out military and naval operations against us in the Pacific.
I have to say too, that as the idiots in the Baltic states continue to bleat about Soviet aggression because of minor violations of airspace over and around Kaliningrad it will probably come as news to the sheep that NATO increasing its fighter presence over the territory by adding one or two Dutch fighters is not really all that dramatic a sign of manifest will and a resolve to defend the Baltic states to the death. Seriously NATO, you need to send or at least be able to convincingly maintain a significant increase in combat power in the threatened area and a couple of old fighter planes is nothing.
I do kind of wonder what a ratissage by the Russians would look like coming out of the blue over the Baltics and perhaps even extending into Germany. That would be the moment of decision and can you imagine the elite ruling class of the EU springing into action to instantly retaliate and declare war? I can't. It will also demonstrate that there isn't a lot there when push comes to shove and people will notice.
Of us all I think only the United States can still mobilize and deploy modern mechanized forces and combat aircraft for immediately expanding military operations. Nobody else in NATO even has the pretense anymore that they could immediately mobilize brigade combat teams and air wings.
Remember back in the 80s when the Soviets kept trying to tempt us by declaring that they would not be the first to use nukes? Back then they looked unstoppable and we were the ones that dithered about whether or not tactical nuclear weapons would be an immediate recourse if attacked. I wonder if any of them still work.....
6 comments:
A Tomahawk looks exactly the same in the air whether it has a Conventional Warhead or a Nuke.
And THAT is exactly the Problem.
Given the NATO Crazies and that Zelensky clown promising a nuke or such every few weeks... Along with making strikes against nuclear reactors and dams to threaten flooding the Ukrainians under NATO-US Control has been terrorists across the board.
Russians have to treat any Tomahawk is a nuclear decapitation strike.
Once it's a serious threat to Russia it is GAME ON.
Putin's restraint so often described as weakness is because He knows America the only country to USE Nuclear Weapons on a undefended pair of cities just to TEST them and warn off Stalin is functionally insane.
Thus, they will have to just assume it's a nuke and respond in force.
How would US ground forces be transported across oceans in the face of Burezhnik, Orezhnik, Zirkon, Kinzhal, Onyx and Kalibr? They wouldn't. Hence the attempted pivot to Monroe 2.0.
As for Rooskies in Berlin again....go for it, couldn't be worse than what is there now, and they may as well go for Brussels ansd Strasbourg too....only there is no point, there are no resources and the populace is worse than useless, though admirably diverse. Instead of Hadrian's Wall or the Limes, Putin's Wall and a policy of FAFO.
Spicy times...
Le Sigh. Again, WHY would Russia invade the Muslim infested, degenerate, self-deindustrializing (green deal Ha!) politically syphilitic EU?
What Resources do they have that Russia wants? What benefit aside from a forever war against Muslim refugees do they offer?
America is trying to steal Venezuela's oil and rare earths. AT Least that makes a tiny bit of sense provoking them with a huge navy vs unarmed speed boats.
The real question we need to ask is, why wouldn't Putin and Russia conclude that the only thing left to sell with all the damned sanctions on oil and gas is weapons like the Kinzhal, Onyx, Kalibr and Zirkon missiles? I mean if I was Russia and the buyers had real negotiable world currency to spend I'd sell them the best of every kind of missile for land, sea and air attacks. I'd probably find buyers on the other side of Hadrian's Wall or Cuba. The problem of course is that none of the potential markets have functioning economies and no money.\
I'm getting flashbacks to the opening of Buffy the Vampire Slayer....into every generation is born......a sucker who thinks he can mix it up for fun and profits in Central America......They don't realize that the good ole days did with Samoza and Baby Doc.
Isn't a ground launched tomahawk basically a gryphon missile...the kind we removed along with Pershing 2s? No sane person would reintroduce these weapons to Europe.
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