Every war in history started out as a Trade War.
Not every Trade War resulted in immediate Armed Conflict
Most did.
War is described as the continuation of politics by other means and we all know that politics is really nothing more than getting, maintaining and controlling access to scarce resources and politicians will literally go to any lengths in order to get what they want.
All those dreams of building up our Navy to take on China are toast now. It is and always was too late. You cannot defeat a land power like China with a naval war and you'd look pretty silly trying. Now we see if the words that Robert Heinlein tossed off in jest have any merit.* I suspect they do and one of the most interesting things in them is the way that China itself left giant gaping holes to trade through and the world will find it palatable to do so.
What holes? Well, Hong Kong is still there being Hong Kong. Taiwan is 100% Chinese or did you all forget that when you moaned about having to prepare ourselves to defend the Chinese in Taiwan from the Western Chinese? I kind of wonder what kind of blandishments and inducement Xi is preparing to make to his dear cousins in Taipei to seal the deal.
It will be interesting to see the various twists and turns it takes and people far smarter than I am have been gaming this scenario for the last 30 years ever since they wrapped up Hong Kong and saw a chance to do the same bloodless thing with the big island. I mean, people pretended for over 100 years that Hong Kong was not China. They can do it again.
*The Moon is a Harsh Mistress:"
6 comments:
Now we see if the words that Robert Heinlein tossed off in jest have any merit.*
Was there supposed ro be a quote?
Yes, I am wondering abot the quote as well.
when i was a kid at the school social,(early '60s) the stupid little give-away toys were from hong kong. we all thought that meant japan.
r
oops
"Every war in history started out as a Trade War."
Oh really? I'd like to see you proving that for [limited list] WW1, WW2, Korean War, Vietnam War...
WW II was a trade war and it started because of the extremely harsh restrictions placed on Germany by the European and American overseers of the Treaty of Versailles. The inability of countries to pay off the WW I war debt led to more dire financial problems and was complicated by America's busted market place.
If you look more closely at the factors behind many, perhaps not all, of the actual wars, trade imbalances and greed really pushed the buttons of social interactions that led to poorly thought out treaties which resulted in actual fighting.
Consider how NATO is now a danger to the US and Europe rather than being an asset. If America pulls out of NATO, Europe doesn't have the bucks to keep it going. When Nord Stream blew, the US started shipping LNG to Europe and made huge bucks from that business. Hmmmm.
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