I may be wrong but I think this is the most peaceful and relaxed period of history since I entered the world. That is kind of surprising given the squibs that held power under Obama and Biden because all they wanted was war after war to distract while the NGOs funded by the Democrats drained the Treasury and while they scraped the Armed Forces clean of any remaining vestige or hint of military talent or professionalism.
It is said that amateurs who talk of war never do it properly since the real 'pros' know that the real war belongs to the logisticians but I think it is pretty clear that war is best thought of as something that a leader prepares his country for and in this current events timeline no leader is actually doing any such thing.* All the idiots who sneered at Trump and call him a warmonger seem to forget and not forgive the fact that he didn't attack a single country during his first term and that nobody else was all that kill hungry out there on the world stage either. There was restraint.
As the hardcore Left loses its grip on power throughout Europe it looks increasingly likely that they are all up to engaging in the kind of war that the Leftist leaders and most South American leaders love. They are going to sic the decrepit and broken ruins of a military on each other in the interests of gaining time and focusing attention away from the fact that the Leftist leadership has ruined and gutted the countries they led. I can't wait for Ireland to declare War on somebody. It's just a matter of time now that the Irish have started to wake up and notice that their leaders have given their entire country away to the scum of the earth.
As I look at President Trump and his leadership installed in State, War and Treasury, I don't see a team of men looking to mix it up militarily with anybody on the planet. There is nobody that they need/want to attack for any reason. This team knows what all the boobs and fools after World War II forgot. They know that ANY regime MUST sell its resources on the Market in order to stay in Power. It doesn't matter if they're communists, islamics, socialists or the mythical capitalists, they all must sell what they make on the world market or perish. I don't know how 'Great Men' lost sight of that and came to think that if Vietnam and the rest of the Dominoes fell it would all be over for us or if Africa all turned hard core communist our industries and way of life would be doomed but all of them thought it was going to happen and worth waging a Cold War to prevent. All of them were idiots.
I know it has been a bare 6 months under the second Great Awakening but I don't really see a single sign that the focus of the leadership is to restore or regenerate American military power. I think we might possibly see a moderately competent frigate in the future but it is still 35 years late and won't be built in significant numbers because the Royal Navy is simply a foreshadowing of the run of naval power. There is a dark little secret almost nobody in the West knows.
Since they surrendered manufacturing to the East, nobody in the West has any meaningful trade fleets that need protection and those that do are out of luck because the means to deal with threats to trade have vanished into history because that is what liberal teachers insist is the nature of the new gentler modern mankind. Flags of convenience means that no government has to fight for the honor of the flag and can let anybody do anything they want to the lascars who man and run the ships flying Liberian flags. Nobody cares.
The world got a hint of what I refer to back when the leaders voluntarily cut off trade between nations and we got the so-called Supply China issue. Parts and then goods slowly dried up and went away. Then we had Ever Given block the Suez Canal for a week and the Red Sea pirates and the great slow down as the Panamanians cottoned on to the fact that a purely hydraulic system like the Panama Canal needs damned near endless amounts of rain in order to function. Those are just the everyday realities of a world that doesn't really have any real Trader Kings or Trader Empires. Those guys made trade happen because it was the Life Blood of the Empire. blah blah blah.

We haven't even addressed the threat to trade posed by people equipped to make it stop. I don't really think the USN decommissioned the old SOSUS network and all those zillions of maritime patrol aircraft without something better to replace them with. You know, like the SR-71 went away because it was hideously expensive to fly and operate but it didn't go away without a replacement that you don't know about. On that note, my old boss in PMW-182 had a picture on his office wall of a front page with picture from the New York Times back when they exposed the Surface Towed Array Surveillance System. Up to that point nobody knew about it and then overnight, everybody did. He had worked in that program his entire working life and was getting ready to retire.
So what does a military do to impose a, say, blockade on trade? Well one answer lies in the sentence itself and the effect can be generated and enhanced by using submarines against merchant ships and mines against all the ships. Guess how many anti-submarine frigates the US has. Go on. Guess how many maritime patrol aircraft we have....Guess how many mine countermeasures ships can currently be found in the Western Hemisphere. Go on, you'll never guess.
Here is the situation though. There are currently how many countries that trade across the sea that are at war with each other or could be at war with each other in the next 20 years? I don't really see any barring idiots like Biden and Obama's team of neocons jumping back into place at War, State and Treasury. The more warlike among us see the potential for war with China if China attacks and invades China. Others see more clearly.
My favorite, what if the EU becomes so blindly stupidly arrogant it attacks Moscow directly, what then? Well some people would say we have obligations under the NATO Treaty and perhaps this is so even if NATO is the aggressor. What would America do? Well, who is to say that President Trump doesn't scoop up another Nobel Peace Prize for convening a conference with President Putin at a golf course somewhere in Switzerland and surrendering the rest of OTAN to Russia? You know, declare Russia the winner! And promise to never attack Russia again.... War Over in 3 days and perhaps this time neither Minsk nor Birmingham need to be nuked.
On the Gripping Hand, the Junta that ruled Argentina never thought in a billion years that Maggie Thatcher would pull Britain out of its nose dive into total mediocrity and take back the pointless and stupid worthless little Falkland Islands. A completely out of hand war could blow up literally overnight. Right now I see that as more Russia retaliating for the endless attacks on Russia by destroying the transportation networks in the EU but then if they do it cybernetically and also weaken and devalue the Euro and the Pound, who would even notice or blame Russia?
*All the fanciest nautical neocons bleat about the Chinese naval buildup because WAR@!!!! On the saner side of the great divide some might see it as a reasonable Chinese policy to make sure that nobody fucks with China's merchant ships and more importantly her fishing fleets, because China is doomed without them and NOBODY else is allied with China to keep China's ships unmolested around the world. In short, China is about the only country that needs a more powerful navy for the classic role of trade protection. Does anybody really think China will invade China militarily? In another 20 or 30 years Taiwan will slip peacefully into Chinese hands just the same way that Macao and Hong Kong have.
Nope, if you want to live in fear, contemplate the coming Bio War. That will keep you up at night.